4. Outlook

Optimism in the art market strengthened heading into 2026, with more businesses anticipating a stronger year ahead than when surveyed 12 months earlier. At the end of 2024, confidence in the dealer sector was at its lowest level since the pandemic, but it rebounded by the end of 2025. Overall, 43% of dealers expected sales to improve (up 10% year-on-year), 38% expected sales to remain stable (down 10%), and a steady 19% anticipated a decline.

The outlook improved in the auction sector in 2025. At the end of 2024, following a difficult year, only 15% of mid-tier auction houses expected sales to improve. By the end of 2025, this had risen to 48%. While 21% anticipated weaker performance, this was markedly down from 40% a year earlier.

Despite the recovery in sales values in 2025, dealers continued to face significant operational pressures, notably rising costs and the growing complexity of cross-border transactions. The most frequently cited challenge for dealers remained political and economic volatility and its impact on demand. The second-ranked concern – consistent with the previous two years – was maintaining relationships with existing collectors, who accounted for 51% of buyers and 62% of sales by value. The cost of travel to and participation in art fairs ranked third, followed closely by overheads and operating expenses, which saw the largest year-on-year increase among reported challenges.

For mid-tier auction houses, the most pressing concern in 2025 was political and economic volatility. Operating costs and overheads ranked second, cited by a notably higher share than in previous years, underscoring the growing pressure in the sector. The challenge of increasing online sales ranked joint third alongside administrative burdens and the complexity of regulatory compliance. However, while concerns about online sales diminished in the five-year outlook, administrative and regulatory pressures intensified.