3. Auction Houses

Sales in the auction market fell for the second consecutive year in 2024, with combined public and private sales by auction houses dropping by 20% to $23.4 billion, their lowest level since 2020. This decrease followed a strong post-pandemic recovery and was significantly impacted by weakness at the high end of the market, with double-digit declines in the value and volume of sales in the $10 million-plus segment. Public auction sales declined by 25% year-on-year, while private sales through auction houses countered this trend with a 14% increase to $4.4 billion.

Despite the overall fall in values, the volume of sales remained resilient, growing by 4% year-on-year, with a 6% rise for fine art auctions, continuing the 2023 trend of increased activity at the lower end of the market. The boost in transaction volume was driven exclusively by more lower-priced lots being sold, with an increase of 8% in the largest segment of sales below $50,000, while those over $1 million declined by one-third.

The number of fine art works selling at auction for over $10 million fell by 39%, following a 27% decline in 2023, while sales values also declined by 45%, marking the largest decrease across all price segments. The share of the market’s value accounted for by $10 million-plus works dropped by 5% to 18% in 2024 (from 23% in 2023 and 33% in 2022). This segment has shown the sharpest decline in values for two consecutive years, representing a dramatic reversal from 2021 and 2022 when it was the fastest-growing. A key indicator of the cooling high-end market was also the 30% year-on-year decline in the total value of the top 50 works sold at auction, bringing it to less than half its value in 2022.

While 2024 brought a downturn for nearly all segments, the market under $5,000 grew in both value (by 7%) and number of lots sold (by 13%). Given that this segment contributes such a large proportion of lot numbers to the market, this meant that despite the significant downturn, more sales took place in 2024, with a 6% increase in fine art auction volumes across the entire market, driven by the addition of thousands of new transactions, but at much lower levels than previous years.

The three largest public auction markets in 2024 remained the US, China, and the UK, with a combined share of 70% of sales by value, down by 4% year-on-year. The US regained its premier position after equalizing with China in 2023, maintaining a stable share of 31%. China was the second-largest market, with a decline of 6% in share year-on-year to 25%. The UK remained the third-largest market with an increased share of 14% (up by 2% year-on-year), ahead of France in fourth place with 10%.

After showing one of the strongest recoveries of all markets, sales in the US fell by 24% to $5.9 billion in 2024, their second year of decline, driven by a reduction in value and volume at the high end. Despite this, the US continued to dominate at the top of the auction market, with 36 of the 50 highest-priced lots in 2024 sold in New York, 73% of the sales value for works of over $10 million, and more than half of the value of $1 million-plus works sold.

After a challenging year of strict lockdowns in 2022, the reopening of the economy in China and the sale of postponed auction inventories created a temporary boost in sales, with values growing by 14% year-on-year to $7.9 billion. However, the market slowed in 2024, with values falling by 38% year-on-year to $4.8 billion as weaker economic fundamentals, rising debt, and other issues negatively impacted vendor plans and demand.

Post-War and Contemporary art remained the largest sector of the fine art auction market in 2024, with a 52% share of global sales values and 54% by volume. Aggregated sales in the sector totaled $4.6 billion, down by 28% year-on-year, marking the sector’s third consecutive year of declining values from the 2021 peak of $8.5 billion. The volume of transactions increased by 5% year-on-year, reaching their highest level to date.

Within the Post-War and Contemporary sector, Contemporary art sales declined more substantially, falling by 36% to $1.4 billion, their lowest level in six years, while Post-War art decreased by 24% to $3.2 billion. New works created in the last 20 years accounted for 23% of the Post-War and Contemporary sector by value in 2024, down from a peak of 34% in 2021.

Sales of Modern art dropped by 17% to $2.2 billion in 2024, despite growth of 17% in the number of transactions. This marked the third consecutive year of declining values, leaving the market 30% below its pre-pandemic 2019 level and less than half its value compared to a decade earlier.

Impressionist and Post-Impressionist art represented 14% of the value of fine art auctions and 12% of lots sold in 2024, both stable on 2023. As the supply of these lots became more scarce in 2023, sales fell and continued their decline in 2024, with a drop of 17% to $1.2 billion, almost one-third lower in value than pre-pandemic 2019. In contrast, the number of lots was up by 13% year-on-year, their second consecutive year of growth.

Sales in the wider Old Masters sector dropped to a 15-year low in 2024, falling by 25% year-on -year to $803 million, despite a rise of 7% in the number of lots sold. With a second consecutive year of declining values, sales in the European Old Masters sector also struggled in 2024, falling by 30% to $384 million, their lowest point since 2020, again despite more lots being sold (up by 8%). The main reason for the slowdown in both parts of the market was fewer very highly priced works being sold, with only four lots selling for over $10 million (three of those being European Old Masters), versus 13 in 2023, and the volume of lots sold for over $1 million also down by more than 40%.