3. Auctions

Following some record-breaking sales at the high end of the market in 2022, public auction sales fell by 7% in 2023 to $25.1 billion, as transactions at prices exceeding $10 million thinned out considerably, leading to a sharp decline in value, while sales in some of the middle and lower-priced segments continued to grow.

Private sales by auction houses bucked the declining trend and grew by 2% to an estimated $3.9 billion. Including both public and private sales, total sales conducted by auction companies were down by 5% year-on-year at $28.9 billion, although still above their level in pre-pandemic 2019.

The US, China, and the UK were still the largest auction markets worldwide in 2023, with a combined share of 74% of public auction sales by value, down by 3% year-on-year. With an uplift partially driven by postponed sales from 2022, China’s market shifted up from second place to equalize with the US, with each having a 31% share of public auction sales (excluding private sales). The UK was the third-largest auction market, with a stable share of 12%.

After a challenging year in 2022, pent-up supply and demand in early 2023 caused a boost in auction sales in China, with values increasing by 14% year-on-year to $7.9 billion. These results include postponed sales from China’s 2022 autumn auction season that were held early in 2023, creating a spike in activity. The second half of the year was significantly slower, with a weaker economic growth outlook, rising debt, continuing issues in the real estate market, and more sluggish global demand among the factors weighing on vendor and buyer sentiment.

Although the US lost significant share in 2023, it continued to be the key center for sales of the highest-priced works at auction worldwide, with eight of the top 10 lots sold in New York, and all but one of the six lots sold for over $50 million (with one sold in London). 34 of the top 50 fine art auction lots of the year were sold in New York, and US sales accounted for 74% of the top 50’s value.

One of the key drivers of the slowdown was a contraction in sales of some of the highest-priced works at auction, notably those selling for over $10 million. After being the fastest-growing segment in 2021 and 2022, it had the lowest growth of all in 2023, as the number of lots surpassing $10 million sold at auction fell by 25% and values decreased by 40% year-on-year, versus low, positive growth in the market under $50,000.

Even with this decline, the $10 million-plus segment has still shown the most growth over time, advancing by 380% from 2009 through 2023 versus just 16% for the market under $50,000. If inflation is taken into account over this period, the $10-million plus segment has grown to over 2.5 times its size, even with the downward adjustment in 2023, while the sales priced under $50,000 have contracted in value.

Post-War and Contemporary art continued to be largest sector of the fine art auction market in 2023, with a share of 53% of the value of global sales and 55% by volume. Aggregated sales in the sector reached $6.5 billion, down by 16% on 2022 and their second year of decline from the peak in 2021 of $7.8 billion. In 2023, the majority of sales by value (66%) were in the older Post-War subsector, with Contemporary art accounting for 34%. Following a strong recovery in 2021, Contemporary art fell for two consecutive years, including a 10% drop in 2023 to $2.2 billion. Post-War art was stable in 2022, but also fell by 18% to $4.3 billion in 2023.

In 2023, almost 36,000 works sold at auction were created in the last 20 years, and these accounted for 30% of the wider Post-War and Contemporary sector by value, up from just 25% in 2019 (and only 17% in 2017).

Modern art accounted for 24% of fine art auction sales by value, up by 2% year-on-year. Following their post-pandemic recovery, the last two years have been marked by slowing sales, with a decline of 8% in 2022 and a further 6% in 2023, leaving the market at $3 billion and just below 2019.

Impressionist and Post-Impressionist art accounted for 14% of the value of fine art auction sales in 2023, down by 4% year-on-year. This sector had one of the strongest recoveries, with an uplift in value of 160% over two years to $2.6 billion in 2022, its highest level recorded. However, sales slowed in 2023, falling by 35% in value to $1.7 billion despite 6% more lots being sold, just below their pre-pandemic level in 2019

In the Old Masters segment, China’s rebound in 2023 helped boost sales, with a 15% rise in values to $1.1 billion, just below the level in 2019. In the European Old Master sector, however, there was a decline of 17% to $481 million, above 2019 but down by 32% in the 10 years since 2013.